My aim in this post is to find a pattern and predict a winner for this season based on my analysis. There are several factors that should be considered when looking into who can win the show. I have excluded the irrationality and bias of audience in picking a rightful winner. Before I do the prediction I have to analyze the factors involved to be a winner.
The factors in the contestants can be categorized into two - physical and non-physical. Both are important. Physical attributes are what the contestants have coming into the show. The show from the title is a dance show. A good dancer, in my opinion, needs to have rhythm, right body language, controlled footwork and grace in the movements with the hips, hands and legs.
There are some physical attributes contributing to how viewers perceive a person to be a good dancer. A dancer height is important - one has to be not too tall or too short. Too tall, you have movements that don't translate well. The same with being short; some moves just don't translate well. The physique of the person is also important. Not too heavy or too lanky. A good dancer is most times on the lean side.
The non-physical attributes are what a contestant has as a person. The energy, stamina, patience and perseverance to put in all those painful hours in physical repetitive practice. The show involves a lot of practice by the contestants that requires energy, stamina, maturity and will power. Each week is a new style of dance and whole lot of new routines to practice and perfect them. All this has to be in a week. Some contestants come from professions that require them. Almost all athletes, at least the ones still in their game, are used to the rigor involved, just a different kind of routine. The same can be said about entertainers who are singers or dancers. Whereas contestants who are like say businessmen and politicians are not involved in this physical rigor in their daily lives. How about the age of the contestants? Too young, they are not mature enough to carry on the seriousness and too old, not strong enough to practice and keep the energy needed for that long period of time. There is a sweet spot. Of course there are always going to be exceptions to these factors. Last but not least is the instructor; all the partners of the celebrities are professional dancers, but we all know that all teachers are not good.
Here is a list of winner and runner up for the last 11 seasons with their profession, age and height.
2005 - Season 1
Kelly Monaco - Entertainer(Model, Actress), 28, 5' 3''
John O'Hurley - Actor, 50, 6-2,
Drew Lachey - Singer, 30, 5' 6"
Jerry Rice - football player, 43, 6'2'',
2006 - Season 3
Emmitt Smith - Athlete(NFL), 37,5' 9''
Mario Lopez: actor, 33, 5'11'',
2007 - Season 4
Apolo Anton Ohno - short track skater, 1982/25/5' 8''
Joey Fatone: singer, 30, 6'1''
2007 - Season 5
Helio Castroneves - Athlete(Race Car Driving), 1975/32/5' 8''
Mel B: singer, 32, 5'5''
2008 - Season 6
Kristi Yamaguchi - Athlete(Figure Skating), 36, 5' 1''
Jason Taylor - Football player, 33, 6' 6''
2008 - Season 7Brooke Burke - Entertainer(Model, TV Show Host), 37, 5' 7''
Warren Sapp - football player, 35, 6'2''
2009 - Season 8
Shawn Johnson - Athlete(Gymnastics), 17, 4'10''
Gilles Marini - Actor, 33, 6'1''
2009 - Season 9
Donny Osmond - Entertainer(Singer, Actor), 52, 5' 9"
Mýa - Singer, 30, 5' 4½"
2010 - Season 10
Nicole Scherzinger - Entertainer(Singer - Pussycat Dolls), 32, 5' 5"
Evan Lysacek - Figure Skater, 25, 6' 2''
2010 - Season 11
Jennifer Grey - Entertainer(Actress), 50, 5' 3"
Kyle Massey - Actor, 19, 5' 6"
2011 - ?
What does the list tell us?
The split is almost 50-50 between athletes and entertainers. Celebrities in their early 30s seem to have won most. The average height of the winners is 5'5''. The outliers were Shawn Johnson(4'10'') and Donny Osmond(at age 52). As the seasons are increasing the outliers in age are increasing. Last season Jennifer Grey won at the age of 50, but she fit into every other pattern I had recognized earlier. I want to say that age is important, but I am beginning to feel that some contestants can overcome this shortcomings provided they are motivated. The outliers listed earlier are all examples who are either too young(Shawn Johnson) or old(Danny Osmond).
This 12th season the contestants are my view on their chances of winning.
Chelsea Kane, 22, 5'6'', Actress, DANCE PARTNER: Mark Ballas
Chance: Average, Has great energy, but I feel she needs to show maturity.
Chris Jericho, 41, 6'0'', WWE Wrestler, Dance Partner: Cheryl Burke
Chance: Good. His advantage is she has a great instructor. Cheryl Burke is the best among the instructors.
Hines Ward, 35, 6'0'', NFL Wide Receiver, Dance Partner: Kym Johnson
Chance: Good.
Kendra Wilkinson, 25, 5'4'', Reality TV Star, Dance Partner: Louis Van Amstel
Chance: Below Average. I don't she has the motivation to go far. Not mature.
Kirstie Alley, 60, 5'8'', Actress, Dance Partner: Maksim Chmerkovskiy
Chance: Good. Highly motivated. Puts in a lot of effort. She gets winded at the end of each show. Her age could be a factor slowing her down.
Mike Catherwood, Radio Host- ELIMINATED: Week One - Dance Partner: Lacey Schwimmer
Chance: Not so much as he is a already eliminated.
Petra Nemcova, 31, 5'10"Super Model, Dance Partner: Dmitry Chaplin
Chance: Confused. She fits all the attributes that I listed above. But somehow she is too lanky and her moves are not translating well.
Ralph Macchio, 49, 5'9", Actor, Dance Partner: Karina Smirnoff
Chance: Great. I love him, not because I love his movie 'My Cousin Vinny', but the effort he puts in the practice. A very likeable personality that can translate to votes with the viewers.
Romeo 21, 5'11'', Actor, Singer, Dance Partner: Chelsie Hightower
Chance: Low. Very young and immature.
Sugar Ray Leonard, 55, 5'10'', Boxer, Dance Partner: Anna Trebunsakaya
Chance: Low. He is a boxer. What can I say?
Wendy Williams, 46, 5'11'', TV and Radio Show Host, Dance Partner: Tony Dovolani
Chance: Low. Doesn't have the energy and grace on the floor.
My Pick: Ralph Macchio. But he is no Jennifer Grey. She had the most full scores ever by a contenstant, three last season when she won it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dancing_with_the_Stars_(U.S._TV_series)
